System dynamics for selecting a forecasting system based on the impact of excesses and shortages

Carlos A. Pretel A., Oscar D. Galvis P., Laura I. Rendón S., Juan C. Osorio G.


This article studies the effect of the excesses and shortages in an organization, specifically in a product whose demand is growing. A system dynamics model was made through two diagrams two diagrams that are joined and related. In one of the diagrams is easy a sharing of forecast data, and in the main plot we can see the relations in the selection of a forecast with other components that are part of the organization. Based on all the relationships, we concluded about the impact of using three types of forecasts on finished goods inventory, safety stock, the level of service and the marginal utility of an organization.


Forecasts of demand; excess; missing; increasing demand.


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