Metodología para el análisis estratégico cuantitativo en proyectos a partir del análisis de riesgos


  • Delio Salgado Docente interno, Facultad de Ingeniería Industrial, Escuela de Ingenierías y Arquitectura, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Montería, Colombia.
  • Gabriel Awad Profesor asociado, Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación y de la Decisión, Facultad de Minas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia – Sede Medellín, Medellín, Colombia.


Palabras clave:

DOFA, análisis de riesgo en proyectos, DOFA cuantitativo, metodología DOFA


Este artículo propone una metodología para la construcción de una matriz de análisis de debilidades, oportunidades, fortalezas y amenazas en la formulación y evaluación de proyectos, con base en estudios cuantitativos de riesgo. Se parte de una revisión de literatura para obtener una descripción del análisis de debilidades, oportunidades, fortalezas y amenazas y sus usos, así como las herramientas en los estudios de riesgos de los proyectos. Luego se muestra un marco metodológico para la construcción de análisis de debilidades, oportunidades, fortalezas y amenazas cuantitativos y los apartados necesarios para llevar a cabo el análisis, el cual se valida con un caso de aplicación. Se concluye que, mediante análisis cuantitativos de riesgos en los proyectos, se puede reducir la subjetividad en la construcción de la matriz estratégica de debilidades, oportunidades, fortalezas y amenazas.


Abdel-Basset, M., Mohamed, M. y Smarandache, F. (2018). An extension of neutrosophic ahp-swot analysis for strategic planning and decision-making. Symmetry, 10(4), 116.

Agyekum, E. B. (2020). Energy poverty in energy rich Ghana: A SWOT analytical approach for the development of Ghana’s renewable energy. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 40, 100760.

Aich, A. y Ghosh, S. K. (2016). Application of SWOT analysis for the selection of technology for processing and disposal of MSW. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 35, 209-228.

Alvarez, S., Carballo-Penela, A., Mateo-Mantecón, I. y Rubio, A. (2016). Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis of carbon footprint indicator and derived recommendations. Journal of Cleaner Production, 121, 238-247.

Arsić, S., Nikolić, D. y Živković, Z. (2017). Hybrid SWOT - ANP - FANP model for prioritization strategies of sustainable development of ecotourism in National Park Djerdap, Serbia. Forest Policy and Economics, 80, 11-26.

Ávila, P., Mendoza, A., Zambrano, M. y Andrade, R. (2021). El flujo de caja en la evaluación de proyectos inversión. Suplemento CICA Multidisciplinario, 5(11), 150-168.

Baycheva-Merger, T. y Wolfslehner, B. (2016). Evaluating the imple-mentation of the Pan-European criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management - A SWOT analysis. Ecological Indicators, 60, 1192-1199.

Benzaghta, M., Elwalda, A., Mousa, M., Erkan, I. y Rahman, M. (2021). SWOT analysis applications: An integrative literature review. Journal of Global Business Insights, 6(1), 55-73.

Bergillos, R. J. y Ortega-Sánchez, M. (2017). Assessing and mitigating the landscape effects of river damming on the Guadalfeo River delta, southern Spain. Landscape and Urban Planning, 165, 117-129.

Bertolucci, L., Stolte, B., Mattos, R., Jugend, D. y Gomes, R. (2019). Organic solid waste management in a circular economy perspective. A systematic review and SWOT analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 239, 118086.

Biehl, J., Köppel, J., Rodorff, V., Huesca, M., Zimmermann, A., Geißler, G. y Rehhausen, A. (2019). Implementing strategic environmental assessment in countries of the global South. An analysis within the Peruvian context. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 77, 23-39.

Bottero, M., Armando, A., Bonino, M., Frassoldati, F., Bruno, E. y Federighi, V. (2016). A hybrid evaluation approach for designing complex urban scenarios: Application for the T.I.T. Area (China). Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 223, 929-935.

Castriciones, E. V. y Vijayan, V. (2020). Biosecurity risk mapping and gap analysis in South East Asia. Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity, 2(1), 36-43.

Chen, T.-L., Hsu, H.-M., Pan, S.-Y. y Chiang, P.-C. (2019). Advances and challenges of implementing carbon offset mechanism for a low carbon economy: The Taiwanese experience. Journal of Cleaner Production, 239, 117860.

Coelho, M., Pavani, B., Carvalho, E., de Oliveira, A., de Oliveira, A., Basso, V., Dias, A., de Carvalho, A. y Barreto, J. (2020). Improving the management effectiveness and decision-making by stakeholders’ perspectives: A case study in a protected area from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Journal of Environmental Management, 272, 111083.

Cook, M. (2021). Chapter 6. Project cash flow. En Developments in Petroleum Science (vol. 71, pp. 133-205). Elsevier.

de Carvalho, M., Alves, L. y de Souza, D. (2015). Project management and its effects on project success: Cross-country and cross-industry comparisons. International Journal of Project Management, 33(7), 1509-1522.

Dede, G. y Akçay, M. (2016). Technology foresight in practice: A proposal for Turkish space vision. Space Policy, 35, 1-5.

Dhote, J. y Limbourg, S. (2020). Designing unmanned aerial vehicle networks for biological material transportation - The case of Brussels. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 148, 106652.

Durdyev, S. y Ismail, S. (2017). The build-operate-transfer model as an infrastructure privatisation strategy for Turkmenistan. Utilities Policy, 48, 195-200.

Eckhardt, J., Nykänen, L., Aapaoja, A. y Niemi, P. (2018). MaaS in rural areas-Case Finland. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 27, 75-83.

Elsevier, B. V. (2021). ScienceDirect.

Görener, A., Toker, K. y Uluçay, K. (2012). Application of combined SWOT and AHP: A case study for a manufacturing Firm. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 58, 58, 1525-1534.

Haque, H. M. E., Dhakal, S. y Mostafa, S. M. G. (2020). An assessment of opportunities and challenges for cross-border electricity trade for Bangladesh using SWOT-AHP approach. Energy Policy, 137, 111118.

Hartono, B. (2018). From project risk to complexity analysis: A systematic classification. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 11(3), 734-760.

Joslin, R. y Müller, R. (2015). Relationships between a project management methodology and project success in different project governance contexts. International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1377-1392.

Kalina, J., Świerzewski, M. y Strzałka, R. (2019). Operational experiences of municipal heating plants with biomass-fired ORC cogeneration units. Energy Conversion and Management, 181, 544-561.

Karimi, M., Niknamfar, A. H. y Niaki, S. T. A. (2019). An application of fuzzy-logic and grey-relational ANP-based SWOT in the ceramic and tile industry. Knowledge-Based Systems, 163, 581-594.

Lee, Y., Kim, Y. J. y Lee, M. C. (2021). Improving public acceptance of H2 stations: SWOT-AHP analysis of South Korea. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 46(34), 17597-17607.

Li, C., Negnevitsky, M. y Wang, X. (2020). Prospective assessment of methanol vehicles in China using FANP-SWOT analysis. Transport Policy, 96, 60-75.

Li, Z., Galeano, M., Ravesteijn, W. y Qi, Z. (2017). Towards low carbon based economic development: Shanghai as a C40 city. Science of The Total Environment, 576, 538-548.

Mahdiyar, A., Tabatabaee, S., Sadeghifam, A. N., Mohandes, S. R., Abdullah, A. y Meynagh, M. M. (2016). Probabilistic private cost-benefit analysis for green roof installation: A Monte Carlo simulation approach. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 20, 317-327.

Mathiyazhagan, S. (2020). Participatory youth-led community development: A child-centered visual SWOT analysis in India. Children and Youth Services Review, 113, 104963.

McNeil, A. J., Frey, R. y Embrechts, P. (2015). Quantitative risk management: Concepts, techniques and tools. Princeton Series in Finance.

Nebot, C., Pasarin, M., Canela, J., Sala, C. y Escosa, A. (2016). La salud comunitaria en los equipos de atención primaria: Objetivo de dirección. Atención Primaria, 48(10), 642-648.

Nesticò, A. (2018). Risk-analysis techniques for the economic evaluation of investment projects. Integrated Evaluation for the Management of Contemporary Cities, 617-629.

Nikulin, C. y Becker, G. (2015). Una metodología sistémica y creativa para la gestión estratégica: Caso de estudio Región de Atacama-Chile. Journal of Technology Management & Innovation, 10(2), 127-144.

Nurcahyanto, Simsek, Y. y Urmee, T. (2020). Opportunities and challenges of energy service companies to promote energy efficiency programs in Indonesia. Energy, 205, 117603.

Project Management Institute (2017). La guía de los fundamentos para la dirección de proyectos (Guía del PMBOK) (6.ª ed.). Project Management Institute, Inc.

Psomadaki, O. I., Dimoulas, C. A., Kalliris, G. M. y Paschalidis, G. (2019). Digital storytelling and audience engagement in cultural heritage management: A collaborative model based on the Digital City of Thessaloniki. Journal of Cultural Heritage, 36, 12-22.

Rahman, M. A. U., Hossain, M. Z. y Kabir, M. E. (2016). Operationalizing community-led housing in practice: Lessons from Bangkok, Thailand and Mumbai, India. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 5(2), 564-578.

Rathi, A. K. A. (2017). Evaluation of project-level environmental impact assessment and SWOT analysis of EIA process in India. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 67, 31-39.

Real Options Valuation, Inc. (2021). Risk simulator (versión 2021) [software]. Real Options Valuation, Inc.

Rodrigues-da-Silva, L. H. y Crispim, J. A. (2014). The project risk management process, a preliminary study. Procedia Technology, 16, 943-949.

Sharma, L. y Pandey, S. (2020). Recovery of resources from end-of-life passenger cars in the informal sector in India. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 24, 1-11.

Sobrido-Prieto, M. y Rumbo-Prieto, M. (2018). The systematic review: Plurality of approaches and methodologies. Enfermería Clínica (English Edition), 28(6), 387-393.

Squires, A., Chitashvili, T., Djibuti, M., Ridge, L. y Chyun, D. (2017). Health research capacity building in Georgia: A case-based needs assessment. Public Health, 147, 1-7.

Stevanovic, M., Allacker, K. y Vermeulen, S. (2017). Hospital building sustainability: The experience in using qualitative tools and steps towards the life cycle approach. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 38, 445-451.

Toklu, M. C., Erdem, M. B. y Taşkın, H. (2016). A fuzzy sequential model for realization of strategic planning in manufacturing firms. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 102, 512-519.

Vacková, J. y Prokešová, R. (2017). Selected areas of immigrant integration in the Czech Republic. Kontakt, 19(4), e237-e247.

van der Aa, J., Goverde, A. J., Teunissen, P. W. y Scheele, F. (2016). Paving the road for a European postgraduate training curriculum. European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, 203, 229-231.

Zaroni, H., Maciel, L. B., Carvalho, D. B. y Pamplona, E. de O. (2019). Monte Carlo Simulation approach for economic risk analysis of an emergency energy generation system. Energy, 172, 498-508.

Zharan, K. y Bongaerts, J. C. (2017). Decision-making on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry: A case studies analysis, a cost analysis and a SWOT analysis. Journal of Sustainable Mining, 16(4), 162-17.





Artículo de investigación

Cómo citar

Metodología para el análisis estratégico cuantitativo en proyectos a partir del análisis de riesgos. (2022). Estudios Gerenciales, 38(165), 424-435.