Efecto de la incertidumbre de la política económica internacional sobre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos

Erik Muñoz Henríquez; Francisco Gálvez-Gamboa

doi:10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383

Erik Muñoz Henríquez Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía, Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad de Talca, Talca, Chile.
Francisco Gálvez-Gamboa Académico, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Económicas, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca, Chile.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383

Palabras clave: EPU, Latinoamérica, mercados financieros, Wavelet

Resumen

El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar la relación entre los mercados financieros latinoamericanos y el índice de incertidumbre de política económica de Estados Unidos y China, a través de la coherencia de Wavelet. Los resultados confirman la existencia de una relación de comovimiento entre los rendimientos de los mercados latinos y este índice; además, se identificó una correlación negativa y liderada por él sobre los retornos de mercado, entre los que destaca el EPU de Estados Unidos sobre México y Colombia en el corto y mediano plazo, y el EPU de China sobre Brasil y Perú a mediano plazo. Esto evidencia un efecto heterogéneo de la relación en los mercados financieros y el EPU. Los hallazgos proveen información relevante para la toma de decisiones respecto a la incertidumbre provocada por las grandes economías internacionales.

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