DIVIDENDOS POTENCIALES Y FLUJOS DE CAJA: UN ANÁLISIS REGIONAL PARA AMÉRICA LATINA (Artículo publicado en inglés)

  • Ignacio Vélez Pareja Master of Science en Industrial Engineering, University of Missouri, Estados Unidos. Profesor Asociado, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, Colombia. Grupo de investigación Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo, IDE, Colombia.
  • Mariano Germán Merlo Master en Finanzas, Universidad del CEMA, Argentina. Director Academico, Especialización en Análisis Financiero y Coordinador Académico del MBA mención Finanzas, Escuela de Negocios de la Universidad de Belgrano, Argentina.
  • David Andrés Londoño Bedoya PhD en Teoría Económica e Instituciones, Universitá degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Italia. Profesor Investigador y Secretario Académico (e), Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, Colombia. Grupo de investigación Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo, IDE, Colombia.
  • Julio A Sarmiento Sabogal Especialista en Finanzas, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia. Profesor, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia.
Palabras clave: FLUJO DE CAJA, ACCIONISTAS, DIVIDENDOS, VALOR, PATRIMONIO

Resumen

Dividendos potenciales y flujos de caja: un análisis regional para América Latina Se examina el valor que el mercado asigna a los componentes del flujo de caja del accionista, incluidos los dividendos potenciales. Se estudia empresas transadas de cinco países de América Latina. El modelo incluye cuatro variables: valor de mercado del patrimonio, los dividendos pagados, cambio en la inversión de patrimonio y cambio en activos líquidos (dividendos potenciales) y se regresaron con el valor de mercado del patrimonio como variable dependiente. Las pruebas estadísticas dan resultados sólidos. Conclusiones: El mercado asigna menos de 1 dólar a un dólar futuro para cualquiera de las variables. Los dividendos potenciales destruyen valor.Un dólar invertido en activos líquidos tiene un valor presente neto negativo.Confirmamos los costos de agencia de no distribuir los flujos de caja.

Descargas

La descarga de datos todavía no está disponible.

Citas

Benninga, S. (2006). Principles of Finance with Excel. London: Oxford.

Benninga, S.Z. and Sarig, O.H. (1997). Corporate Finance. A Valuation Approach. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

Brealey, R. and Myers, S.C. (2003). Principles of Corporate Finance (7th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw- Hill-Irwin.

Chu, H. and Partington, G. (2008). The Market Valuation of Cash Dividends: The Case of the CRA Bonus Issue. International Review of Finance, 8(1-2), 1-20. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1138832 or DOI: 10.1111/j.1468 -24 43.2008.00072.x

Copeland, T.E., Koller, T. and Murrin, J. (1990). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Copeland, T.E., Koller, T. and Murrin, J. (1994). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (2nd ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Copeland, T.E., Koller, T. and Murrin, J. (2000). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies (3rd ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Damodaran, A. (1999). Applied Corporate Finance. A Users Manual. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Damodaran, A. (2005). Dealing with Cash, Cross Holdings and Other Non-Operating Assets: Approaches and Implications. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=841485

Damodaran, A. (2006a). Damodaran on Valuation (2nd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Damodaran, A. (2006b). Valuation approaches and metrics: a survey of the theory and evidence. Available at SSRN: <http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/papers/valuesurvey.pdf> Originally published in Foundations and Trends® in Finance, 1(8), 693-784, 2005.

Damodaran, A. (2008). Equity instruments: Part I. Discounted cash flow valuation. Recovered on January 3, 2009, from: www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/packet1.pdf (updated January 14, 2008).

DeAngelo, H. and DeAngelo, L. (2006). The Irrelevance of the MM Dividend Irrelevance Theorem. Journal of Financial Economics, 79, 293–315. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=680855 or DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.680855

DeAngelo, H. and DeAngelo, L. (2007). Payout policy pedagogy: what matters and why. European Financial Management, 13(1), 11-27.

Dechow, P.M., Richardson, S.A. and Sloan, R.G. (2006). The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings. 20th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2007 Paper. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=63862 2

Faulkender, M.W. and Wang, R. (2004). Corporate financial policy and the value of cash (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=563595

Fernández, P. (2002). Valuation Methods and Shareholder Value Creation. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

Fernández, P. (2007). Company valuation methods. The most common errors in valuation (working paper). Available at SSRN: <http://ssrn.com/abstract=274973>.

Harford, J. (1999). Corporate cash reserves and acquisitions. Journal of Finance, 54(6), 1969-1997. Recovered in January 30, 1997, from: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2109

Jensen, M.C. (1986). Agency cost of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=99580 or DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.99580.

Mikkelson, W.H. and Partch, M. (2003). Do persistent large cash reserves lead to poor performance? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 38(2), 275- 294. Available at SSRN: <http://ssrn.com/abstract=186950> or DOI: 10. 213 9/ssrn.186950.

Miller, M.H. and Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth and the valuation of shares. The Journal of Business, 34(4), 411- 433.

Modigliani, F. and Miller, M.H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation taxes and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 47, 261-297.

Modigliani, F. and Miller, M.H. (1963). Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: a correction. American Economic Review, 53, 433-443.

Opler, T.C., Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R.M. and Williamson, R. (1999). The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics, 52(1), 3-46. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=225992

Penman, S. (1992). Return to fundamentals. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, 7, 465-483. Reprinted in R. Brief and K.V. Peasnell (Eds.), Clean Surplus: A Link Between Accounting and Finance. New York and London: Garla nd Publishing.

Penman, S. (2007). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation (3rd ed.) New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

Penman, S. and Sougiannis, T. (1998). A comparison of dividends, cash flow, and earnings approaches to equity valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research, 15(3), 343- 383.

Pinkowitz, L., Stulz, R.M. and Williamson, R. (2003). Do firms in countries with poor protection of investor rights hold more cash? (Dice Center working paper No. 2003-29). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=476442 or D OI: 10.2139/ssrn.476442.

Pinkowitz, L. and Williamson, R.G. (2002). What is a dollar worth? The market value of cash holdings (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=355840 or DOI: 10.2139/ ssrn.355840.

Pinkowitz, L., Williamson, R. and Stulz, R.M. (2007). Cash holdings, dividend policy, and corporate governance: a cross-country analysis. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 19(1), 81-87.

Schwetzler, B. and Carsten, R. (2003). Valuation effects of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Germany. HHL (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=490262

Shrieves, R.E. and Wachowicz, J.M. (2001). Free Cash Flow (FCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), and Net Present Value (NPV): A Reconciliation of Variations of Discounted- Cash-Flow (DCF) Valuation. The Engineering Economist, 46(1), 33 -52.

Tham, J. and Vélez-Pareja, I. (2004). Principles of Cash Flow Valuation. Boston, MA: Academic Press.

Vélez-Pareja, I. (1999a). Construction of free cash flows: a pedagogical note. Part I (December) (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=196588

Vélez-Pareja, I. (1999b). Construction of free cash flows: a pedagogical note. Part II (December) (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=199752

Vélez-Pareja, I. (2004). The correct definition for the cash flows to value a firm (free cash flow and cash flow to equity) (working paper). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=597681

Vélez-Pareja, I. (2005a). Once more, the correct definition for the cash flows to value a firm (free cash flow and cash flow to equity) (Working Paper). Available at SSRN: <http://ssrn.com/abstract=642763>.

Vélez-Pareja, I. (2005b). Construction of cash flows revisited (working paper). Available at SSRN: <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=784486>.

Velez-Pareja, I. and Magni, C.A. (2009). Potential dividends and actual cash flows in equity evaluation. A critical analysis. Estudios Gerenciales, 25(113), 123-150.

Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago de Chile (Chilean Stock Exchange): http://www.bolsadesantiago.com/. Visited on May 23, 2008.

Bolsa de Valores de Lima (Peruvian Stock Exchange): http://www.bvl.com.pe/ . Visited on May 23, 2008.

Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (Mexican Stock Exchange): http://www.bmv.com.mx/. Visited on May 23, 2008.

BOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange): http://www.bmfbovespa.com.br/home.aspx?idioma=pt-br

Comisión Nacional de Valores, CNV (National Exchange Commision): http://www.cnv.gov.ar/. Visited on May 23, 2008.

Google Finance: http://finance.google.com/finance. Visited on May 23, 2008.

Publicado
2009-12-31
Cómo citar
Vélez Pareja, I., Merlo, M. G., Londoño Bedoya, D. A., & Sarmiento Sabogal, J. A. (2009). DIVIDENDOS POTENCIALES Y FLUJOS DE CAJA: UN ANÁLISIS REGIONAL PARA AMÉRICA LATINA (Artículo publicado en inglés). Estudios Gerenciales, 25(113), 151-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0123-5923(09)70093-2
Sección
Artículo de investigación