Divulgación de información sobre riesgos y su impacto en la precisión de las previsiones de los analistas

Autores/as

  • José Miguel Tirado-Beltrán Professor, Department of Finance and Accounting, University Jaume I, Castellón de la Plana, Spain. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1935-7574
  • J. David Cabedo-Semper Professor, Department of Finance and Accounting, University Jaume I, Castellón de la Plana, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3640-9767

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2020.156.3774

Palabras clave:

información sobre riesgos, precisión de los analistas, riesgo

Resumen

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar la influencia de la divulgación de información de riesgo en la precisión de las previsiones de beneficios de los analistas financieros para el mercado de valores español. Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis de regresión con datos de panel para una muestra de empresas no financieras que cotizan en la Bolsa de Madrid de 2010 a 2015. Los resultados muestran que la información de riesgo no ayuda a reducir los niveles de incertidumbre de los analistas. Adicionalmente, el análisis por separado de la información de riesgos verificada y no verificada confirma que no existe relación entre la información de riesgos publicada y la percepción que los analistas tienen sobre los niveles de riesgo de las empresas.

Descargas

Los datos de descarga aún no están disponibles.

Referencias

Abarbanell, J. S., & Lehavy, R. (2002). Differences in Commercial Database Reported Earnings: Implications for Empirical Research. Retrieved on May, 20, 2019, from: https://ssrn.com/abstract=228918 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.228918

Abraham, S., Marston, C., & Darby, P. (2012). Risk reporting: Clarity, relevance and location. Edinburgh: Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland.

Ahmed, A. S., Nainar, S. M. K., & Zhou, J. (2005). Do analysts’ earnings forecasts fully reflect the information in accruals? Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, 22(4), 329-342. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-4490.2005.tb00378.x

Aljifri, K., & Hussainey, K. (2007). The determinants of forward-looking information in annual reports of UAE companies. Managerial Auditing Journal, 22(9), 881-894. https://doi.org/10.1108/02686900710829390

American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. (1994). Improving Business Reporting: A Customer Focus. New York: AICPA.

American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. (1987). Report of the task force on risk and uncertainties. New York: AICPA .

Ashbaugh, H., & Pincus, M. (2001). Domestic accounting standards, international accounting standards, and the predictability of earnings. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(3), 417-34. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00020

Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. (2014). Risk reporting. London: ACCA.

Bamber, L. S., Barron, O. E., & Stober, T. L. (1997). Trading volume and different aspects of disagreement coincident with earnings announcements. Accounting Review, 72(4), 575-597.

Barron, O. E., Kile, C. O., & O'Keefe, T. B. (1999). MD&A quality as measured by the SEC and analysts' earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research, 16(1), 75-109. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1999.tb00575.x

Basu, S., Hwang, L., & Jan, C. L. (1998). International variation in accounting measurement rules and analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 25(9-10), 1207-1247. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00234

Beattie, V., McInnes, B., & Fearnley, S. (2004). A methodology for analysing and evaluating narratives in annual reports: a comprehensive descriptive profile and metrics for disclosure quality attributes. Accounting Forum, 28(3), 205-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accfor.2004.07.001

Behn, B. K., Choi, J. H., & Kang, T. (2008). Audit quality and properties of analyst earnings forecasts. The Accounting Review, 83(2), 327-349. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2008.83.2.327

Beretta, S., & Bozzolan, S. (2008). Quality versus quantity: the case of forward-looking disclosure. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 23(3), 333-376. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0148558X0802300304

Bernardi, C., & Stark, A. W. (2018). Environmental, social and governance disclosure, integrated reporting, and the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The British Accounting Review, 50 (1), 16-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2016.10.001

Bozzolan, S., Trombetta, M., & Beretta, S. (2009). Forward looking disclosures, financial verifiability and analysts’ forecasts: a study of cross-listed European firms. European Accounting Review, 18(3), 435-473. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638180802627779

Brown, L. D. (1997). Analyst forecasting errors: Additional evidence. Financial Analysts Journal, 53(6), 81-88. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v53.n6.2133

Byard, D., Li, Y., & Yu, Y., (2011). The effect of mandated IFRS adoption on analysts’ forecast errors. Journal of Accounting Research, 49(1), 69-96. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2010.00390.x

Cabedo, J. D., & Tirado-Beltrán, J. M. (2014). Risk disclosure and cost of equity. The Spanish case. Contaduría y Administración, 59(4), 105-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0186-1042(14)70157-3

Cabedo, J. D., & Tirado, J. M. (2004). The disclosure of risk in financial statements. Accounting Forum, 28(2), 181-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accfor.2003.10.002

Cabedo, J. D., & Tirado, J. M. (2009). Risk information disclosure: a proposal for measurement. Innovar, 19(34), 121-134.

Campbell, J. L., Chen, H., Dhaliwal, D. S., Lu, H. M., & Steele, L. B. (2014). The information content of mandatory risk factor disclosures in corporate filings. Review of Accounting Studies, 19(1), 396-455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-013-9258-3

Chang, M., Hooi, L., & Wee, M. (2014). How does investor relations disclosure affect analysts' forecasts? Accounting & Finance, 54(2), 365-391. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12046

Crawford, V. P., & Sobel, J. (1982). Strategic information transmission. Econometrica, 50(6), 1431-1451.

DeFond, M. L., & Jiambalvo, J. (1994). Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 17(1), 145-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(94)90008-6

Ding, F., Luo, W., Hao, X., & Zhang, L. (2017). Does IFRS Adoption Increase the Accuracy of Chinese Analysts’ Forecasts? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(5), 1107-1021. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1276826

Dobler, M. (2008). Incentives for risk reporting-A discretionary disclosure and cheap talk approach. The International Journal of Accounting, 43(2), 184-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intacc.2008.04.005

Duru, A., & Reeb, D. M. (2002). International diversification and analysts' forecast accuracy and bias. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 415-433. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2002.77.2.415

Filzen, J. J. (2015). The information content of risk factor disclosures in quarterly reports. Accounting Horizons, 29(4), 887-916. https://doi.org/10.2308/acch-51175

Francis, J., & Schipper, K. (1999). Have financial statements lost their relevance? Journal of Accounting Research, 37(2), 319-352.

Fried, D., & Givoly, D. (1982). Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: A better surrogate for market expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 4(2), 85-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(82)90015-5

Garrido, P. & Sanabria, S. (2014). The impact of mandatory IFRS adoption on financial analysts´ earnings forecasts in Spain. Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting, 43(2), 111-131. https://doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2014.911587

Glaum, M., Baetge, J., Grothe, A., & Oberdörster, T. (2013). Introduction of international accounting standards, disclosure quality and accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. European Accounting Review, 22(1), 79-116. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638180.2011.558301

Gujarati, D.N. (2003). Basic Econometrics (4th ed.). Boston: McGraw-Hill.

Healy, P. M., & Palepu, K. G. (2001). Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 31(1), 405-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(01)00018-0

Healy, P. M., Hutton, A. P., & Palepu, K. G. (1999). Stock performance and intermediation changes surrounding sustained increases in disclosure. Contemporary Accounting Research, 16(3), 485-520. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1999.tb00592.x

Heinle, M., & Smith, K. (2015). A theory of risk disclosure. Working paper, University of Pennsylvania.

Heinle, M. S., & Smith, K. C. (2017). A theory of risk disclosure. Review of Accounting Studies, 22(4), 1459-1491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-017-9414-2

Hodgdon, C., Tondkar, R., Harless, D., & Adhikari, A. (2008). Compliance with IFRS disclosure requirements and individual analysts’ forecast errors. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 17(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2008.01.002

Hope, O. K. (2003). Disclosure practices, enforcement of accounting standards, and analysts' forecast accuracy: An international study. Journal of Accounting Research, 41(2), 235-272. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00102

Hope, O. K., Hu, D., & Lu, H. (2016). The benefits of specific risk-factor disclosures. Review of Accounting Studies, 21(4), 1005-1045. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-016-9371-1

Horton, J., Serafeim, G. & Serafeim, I. (2013). Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment? Contemporary Accounting Research, 30(1), 388-423. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.2012.01159.x

Hutton, A. P., Lee, L. F., & Shu, S. Z. (2012). Do managers always know better? The relative accuracy of management and analyst forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 50(5), 1217-1244. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2012.00461.x

Hutton, A. P., Miller, G. S., & Skinner, D. J. (2003). The role of supplementary statements with management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 41(5), 867-890. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1475-679X.2003.00126.x

Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales. (1997). Financial Reporting of Risk: Proposals for a Statement of Business Risk. London: ICAEW.

Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales. (2011). Reporting Business Risks: Meeting Expectations. London: ICAEW .

International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS No. 7). Financial Instruments: Disclosures. IASB.

Jaggi, J. & Jain, R. (1998). An evaluation of financial analysts' earnings forecasts for Hong Kong firms. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 9(3), 177-200. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-646X.00036

Jones, J. J. (1991). Earnings management during import relief investigations. Journal of Accounting Research, 29(2), 193-228.

Jorgensen, B. N. & Kirschenheiter, M. T. (2003). Discretionary risk disclosures. The Accounting Review, 78(2), 449-469. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2003.78.2.449

Jorion, P. (2002). How informative are value-at-risk disclosures? The Accounting Review, 77(4), 911-931. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2002.77.4.911

Kajüter, P. (2001). Risikoberichterstattung: Empirische Befunde und der Entwurf des DRS 5. Der Betrieb, 54(3), 105-111

Kou, W., & Hussain, S. (2007). Predictive gains to segmental disclosure matrices, geographic information and industry sector comparability. The British Accounting Review, 39(3), 183-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2007.05.002

Kravet, T. & Muslu, V. (2013). Textual risk disclosures and investors’ risk perceptions. Review of Accounting Studies, 18(4), 1088-1122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-013-9228-9

Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). Earnings expectations: the analysts' information advantage. The Accounting Review, 65(2), 461-476.

Landis, J., & Koch, G. (1977). The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics, 33(1), 159-74.

Lang, M. H., & Lundholm, R. J. (1996). Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review, 71(4), 467-492.

Larrán, M., & Rees, W. P. (1999). Un análisis empírico de los pronósticos de los analistas financieros en el caso español. Revista española de financiación y contabilidad, 28(101), 675-730.

Lev, B., & Zarowin, P. (1999). The boundaries of financial reporting and how to extend them, Journal of Accounting Research, 37(2), 353-385.

Ley Sociedades de Capital. (2010). Real Decreto Legislativo 1/2010, de 2 de julio, por el que se aprueba el texto refundido de la Ley de Sociedades de Capital.

Lin, B. X., & Lin, C. M. (2017). SEC FRR No. 48 and analyst forecast accuracy. Applied Economics Letters, 24(6), 427-432. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1200174

Linsley, P. M., & Shrives, P. J. (2006). Risk reporting: A study of risk disclosures in the annual reports of UK companies. The British Accounting Review, 38(4), 387-404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2006.05.002

Linsmeier, T. J., Thornton, D. B., Venkatachalam, M., & Welker, M. (2002). The effect of mandated market risk disclosures on trading volume sensitivity to interest rate, exchange rate, and commodity price movements. The Accounting Review, 77(2), 343-377. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2002.77.2.343

Mercer, M. (2004). How do investors assess the credibility of management disclosures?. Accounting Horizons, 18(3), 185-196. https://doi.org/10.2308/acch.2004.18.3.185

Miihkinen, A. (2013). The usefulness of firm risk disclosures under different firm riskiness, investor-interest, and market conditions: New evidence from Finland. Advances in Accounting, 29(2), 312-331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2013.09.006

Moumen, N., Othman, H. B., & Hussainey, K. (2015). The value relevance of risk disclosure in annual reports: Evidence from MENA emerging markets. Research in International Business and Finance, 34, 177-204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.02.004

Nelson, M. W. & Rupar, K. (2015). Numerical formats within risk disclosures and the moderating effect of investors’ concerns about management discretion. The Accounting Review, 90(3), 1149-1168. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-50916

Ng, J., Tuna, I., & Verdi, R. (2013). Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news. Review of Accounting Studies, 18(4), 956-986. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-012-9217-4

Rajgopal, S. (1999). Early evidence on the informativeness of the SEC's market risk disclosures: The case of commodity price risk exposure of oil and gas producers. The Accounting Review, 74(3), 251-280. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.1999.74.3.251

Ramnath, S., Rock, S., & Shane, P. (2008). The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(1), 34-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.12.006

Rogers, J. L., & Stocken, P. C. (2005). Credibility of management forecasts. The Accounting Review, 80(4), 1233-1260. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2005.80.4.1233

Sarens, G., & D’Onza, G. (2017). The perception of financial analysts on risk, risk management, and internal control disclosure: Evidence from Belgium and Italy. International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 14(2), 118-138. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41310-016-0014-3

Solomon, J., Solomon, A., Norton, S. D., & Joseph, N. L. (2000). A conceptual framework for corporate risk disclosure emerging from the agenda for corporate governance reform. The British Accounting Review, 32(4), 447- 478. https://doi.org/10.1006/bare.2000.0145

Tan, H., Wang, S., & Welker, M. (2011). Analyst following and forecast accuracy after mandated IFRS adoptions. Journal of Accounting Research, 49(5), 1307-1357. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2011.00422.x

Vanstraelen, A., Zarzeski, M. T., & Robb, S. W. (2003). Corporate nonfinancial disclosure practices and financial analyst forecast ability across three European countries. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 14(3), 249-278. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-646X.00098

Wu, Y., & Wilson, M. (2016). Audit Quality and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: The Impact of Forecast Horizon and Other Modeling Choices. Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 35(2), 167-185. https://doi.org/10.2308/ajpt-51216

Zreik, O., & Louhichi, W. (2017). Risk sentiment and firms’ liquidity in the French market. Research in International Business and Finance, 39(Part B), 809-823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.11.003

Publicado

2020-07-23

Número

Sección

Artículo de investigación

Cómo citar

Divulgación de información sobre riesgos y su impacto en la precisión de las previsiones de los analistas . (2020). Estudios Gerenciales, 36(156), 314-324. https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2020.156.3774